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3/11/2007

How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

africancrisis.org

Nelson MandelaIn October 2006, I suggested that we do a graphical exercise on the long history of South African crime because it would result in an interesting analysis.

The original email along with its source data and the logic therein can be found at this link: Click here for the original article, data and rationale.

Crime in South Africa is on everyone's lips these days and it is even the talk of the world. Everyone condemned Apartheid and what whites here were doing for decades. It was said that the ANC (African National Congress), led by Nelson Mandela would be the solution to the problems of this country.

The brutal crime in this country which stuns the world, is something of a mystery to most people. I want to engage in an exercise using data from a New York Times writer and well known Libertarian, along with official data from the current S.African Government to demonstrate a few shocking facts which most people are oblivious to when analysed within the context of the history of this country.

I would like to thank the many readers from my website who helped compile these graphs, most especially Verena, whose layout I chose for this exercise.

I am going to make the Excel spreadsheet we used, available for download by other South Africans, including crime websites, who may wish to do their own investigations and perhaps modify the figures according to their own research. I'm making this available to everyone, along with all the sources of the data so that anyone can check and verify my logic and statements. I would appreciate it, if anyone can find more complete and more accurate records, if they would kindly return to me the updated spreadsheet along with any new graphs or data or analyses they have done.

That's another thing... South Africa must be the only country in the world with a plethora of individually run Crime Websites! Why? Because crime is an enormous issue here and the mere fact that people are debating it and going to the extent of forming anti-crime organisations and websites should tell you what a concern it is over here.

You can download the spreadsheet we created from here: Click here to download the Crime Stats Excel Spreadsheet

My original idea came from a book called, "Die, the Beloved Country?" by Jim Peron who wrote for the New York Times and who came to live in South Africa.

That book's details can be seen on my website's shop at this URL:
Click here for the link to: "Die, the Beloved Country?"

Jim Peron was/is a well known Libertarian. He was so excited when Nelson Mandela and his ANC came to power in 1994, that he left America to live in South Africa to be a part of the amazing country which he believed we were creating here.

However, when Jim Peron saw what Mandela was doing up close, he was so disgusted that he did not even wait for the 2nd term of ANC rule. He wrote a book called, "Die, the Beloved country?" which when it was printed was quietly removed from bookshelves by the S.African Government. Jim Peron was so disgusted that he packed up and went to New Zealand!

Here are a few quotes from Jim Peron in his book:-

"There is going to be interference from the Government in every sphere of life and activity in South Africa..." - Steve Tshwete, Minister of Sport

"It is imperative to get rid of merit as the overriding principle in the appointment of public servants." - Mario Rantho - ANC MP

President Mandela said the ANC wants a two-thirds majority "to ensure that we are not interfered with by Mickey Mouse (opposition) parties".


In Jim's book, on pages 104-105, he compiled crime statistics for South Africa from 1974-1997. It was those statistics in this book by this New York Times writer that gave me the idea for this exercise.

I want to take these figures to show you some interesting things about South Africa which I'll bet most people never knew.

Over the years, as I have watched and analysed the ANC's actions, I have come to the conclusion that crime and the ANC go together. There should be no mystery about the fact that we are flooded with crime. The crime did not happen by accident.

My thesis which I will present to you is this: The Explosion of Crime in South Africa runs directly parallel with the growth, influence and power of Nelson Mandela's (ANC) African National Congress.

Indeed, I have said over the years that:-
(a) The ANC loves crime, wants crime and will try to make it worse!
Now I want to add a further thought:-
(b) As long as the ANC rules South Africa, crime will always be out of control. Crime will only go away when the ANC goes away.

Remember those words... in the years ahead as we revisit this crime issue.

In the first exercise we will work only with Jim Peron's compiled statistics. Below we see burglary statistics from 1974-1997. I drew 3 green arrows on the timeline because I want to show you some things.

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

I drew 3 green arrows on the graph to coincide with important historical dates which affected this country. South Africa was firmly under White Apartheid rule in the 1970's. The first serious sign of trouble were the 1976 Soweto riots. These were quelled and things quietened down. ANC terrorists were unable to enter the country in large numbers from the north because of the war raging in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe). In 1980, Robert Mugabe came to power in Zimbabwe. The following year, I was the first of my family to leave and go to South Africa. 1981 was a relatively quiet year in South Africa, but in 1982, with Mugabe in power in Zimbabwe and the Rhodesian war (which had raged not only in Rhodesia but in Mozambique and other neighbouring states) was over. Now that the Rhodesian war was over, the ANC terrorists could enter South Africa. So it took them a while to get organised and by 1982, they started coming in over the borders.

So that is why I drew the green arrow roughly in the 1982 column - because you will see that from 1982 to 1987, crime - in South Africa - in ALL categories went up! However, no history book will tell you this. The history books will tell you that the ANC's "struggle against Apartheid" was occuring in this time. What I'm showing you is a dimension of the ANC's political/military struggle which everyone has ignored.

But first let's focus on the burglary graph only. You will see similar patterns in other graphs.

By 1987, South Africa was a hotbed of ANC terrorism. This was "the struggle" which they talk so proudly of. But, the struggle was not warfare in the conventional sense. It was not really aimed at the white power structures - it was aimed at civilians - because that's who terrorists go for. Terrorism is about killing and terrorising the weak, the old, the young and the UNARMED. Crime is just another dimension of terrorism. They also used crime as a way of funding their activities - and perhaps this is still going on - to this very day!

So while Nelson Mandela's ANC was busy planting bombs... they were also busy... driving up crime in this country - in fact, every conceivable facet of CRIME!

By 1987 things were really violent... But the Apartheid Government fought back furiously on all levels, and so you can see a dip in most crimes after 1987.

The ANC's plan in those days of its "struggle" was to "make the country ungovernable" - that was their slogan and their strategic aim.

Nelson Mandela was released from 27 years in jail on February 11th, 1990.
Go back to the graph with Jim Peron's figures on it, and you'll see something interesting. In 1989/1990, the Apartheid Government under President FW De Klerk was talking PEACE. They were talking about handing over power to Nelson Mandela and the ANC. As a consequence of this talk, and to show their sincerity, they released Nelson Mandela from prison in February 1990. But what happened immediately after that? Not what you would expect! Look at the graph... and you will see... crime started exploding upwards! You will see it on each and every one of the graphs below - except for rape. Rape is the only crime that did not go up as a result of Nelson Mandela's release. But every other crime - from burglary to MURDER exploded upwards from that moment onwards!

And EXPLODE - it did! Like never before in the history of South Africa!

In 1994, Nelson Mandela became the first black President of South Africa, and the ANC took over the country. Most crimes went up even after Nelson Mandela and the ANC came to power - again - contrary to expectation!

Let's quickly look at these same time periods and the crime statistics for different types of crime. In the car theft statistics below we see it levelling out a bit but then by 1997 showing the beginnings of a new upward trend.

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

Robbery showed a similar patten, a bit of a slowing down, but then back on upward.

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

Take Note: Nowhere, in any of these graphs will you see crime returning back down to the low Apartheid levels. In fact, crime never even returns back to the days of the maximum violence of the struggle days of 1987! In 1987, this country was regarded as falling apart at the seams because of the violence, yet... if you will look at any crime statistics for 1997 and compare it with 1987 you will see that the 1987 levels are very low. As incredible as this may sound, post-Apartheid South Africa is much more violent than Apartheid South Africa was even at the height of the war and instability brought on by the ANC! That is an incredible fact!

Rape is an interesting crime. Rape only really started rising from 1988 onwards. It is the only crime which does not go up a lot when Nelson Mandela is released from prison. It is rising all the time, but its real explosion occurs just before the ANC takes over in 1994 and thereafter. I have no explanation for it.

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

Now murder is an interesting crime. It is also the most sensitive crime and the one the Government is most likely to cover up. Murder can also be a way of assassinating one's opponents. There is a proven link in revolutions between murder and assassination. Terrorists and Liberation Movements in many countries around the world have used murder and crime as a way of hiding their revolutionary activities. They not only use crime to obtain funds, but also to despatch troublesome people. Note how murder climbed quietly and constantly and exploded upwards even until and shortly after 1994. Then it settles down a bit. Or does it? Or have some of the figures been fiddled? We'll discuss that later.

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

Now we see in the combined graph below, all the crimes. I even inserted the release of Nelson Mandela in 1990 - and tried to position the column exactly there along with the elections in April 1994. So looking back over the trends we can see:-
1982 - The borders are open, ANC infiltration begins in a big way...
1987 - Violence and terror hits its peak...
1990 - Nelson Mandela is released...
1994 - Nelson Mandela and the ANC come to power.
All these points in time, showing the rise in power of the ANC (even when the White Govt was talking peace and handing over power)... coincide with ever more violence. In short... as the ANC's power grows... so do almost all forms of crime.

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

Jim Peron's statistics only go up to 1997. Even under Mandela, crime was stressing people out and most people who have left this country and emigrated elsewhere have cited crime as the reason. Now you can see why 1 million out of the 5 million whites who left... had good reason to. Even non-whites have left South Africa since 1994!

But as crime was getting worse under Mandela's rule, and then Jim Peron's book came out (which the Govt quietly removed from bookstores) ... the Government became rather concerned about their "image". They weren't so much concerned about actually combatting crime - but about everyone's "perceptions" about crime. So in 2000, they did a strange thing - they put a moratorium on the release of crime statistics. From 2000, until the present time (March 2007), the Govt has never again released crime statistics like they did in the past. They simply keep all crime under wraps for a year and then they release it. From 2000 onwards they also started counting it differently and they changed all sorts of categories. The fudging of crime statistics probably started on a smaller scale prior to 2000 but in 2000 they had to control it very firmly. From then onwards (it should come as no surprise to us), crime has officially been "going down". Pretty much everybody in this country believes the Govt is lying about crime. That's no secret. Everyone can see it. But I wish to make two points:-
1) What might the real crime levels actually be like now?
2) And how does crime compare, even with these fudged statistics, with what it was in the 1970's and 1980's?

I searched the Internet a bit and found two well acknowledged sources of crime statistics.

The one is the Institute for Strategic Studies.

Click here for ISS Crime Statistics.

The other is the South African Government itself.
Click here for the South African Govt Crime Statistics page.

I took the statistics - the fudged ones from Govt, and modified 3 of the crime categories (going back to 1995). And this is the result.

Here is burglary. I have an arrow at 2000, when the Govt officially and openly started suppressing, editing and changing the crime statistics. It should be no surprise that "crime went down". Firstly notice the general upward trend of burglary in S.Africa. If one were to extrapolate it, one could guess that by now, 2007, we should be having about 500,000 burglaries annually as opposed to the 300,000 maximum recorded in those statistics. (Note: Many people in S.Africa do not report all crimes except in order to get a case number for insurance purposes). Secondly, even the fudged crime statistics are extremely high - in fact - higher than at any time during Apartheid including "the struggle/war/revolution".

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

Look at car theft statistics when modified by the official, fudged, Government statistics - taken in a historical context. The blue arrow is when the moratorium on crime statistics was implemented by the ANC in 2000. Not surprisingly, thereafter things "improved". But look at a clear trend in car theft which goes as far back, in a flat straight line as 1984 - even back to 1982. Extrapolate that... and the figure is shocking. Compare it to the fudged figure. We can: (a) Say that the fudged figure is a LOT lower than what the real figure probably is. (b) Even the fudged figure is still higher than before the ANC came to power.

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

Murder statistics are the most sensitive statistics of all. They are the crime figure that worry people the most. So they show a consistent downward trend since 1997 - but people will question that. You will notice that even according to official statistics, murder increased well after the ANC came to power and officially it peaked in 1996/7. It went down a little and then started going UP again... and then, in kicks the moratorium on crime statistics... The blue arrow is when the moratorium kicked in and the fudging began. I did a bit of a thumbsuck and guess and my arrow points to 30,000+ murders a year. International studies have shown that S.Africa is 8 times more violent than the average country on planet earth. The USA with 300 million people worries about 16,000 murders. S.Africa with an official population of 45 million has an official murder rate of over 18,000 (fudged). The reality is probably 30,000 or even higher. Dan Roodt was using the figure of 30,000 back in 2003. I'm not sure the source he obtained it from, nevertheless, I think many would say that it is a pretty reasonable assumption.

I recently contacted the regional manager of a very big nationwide security company asking if he could give me an indication of crime in my suburb. He said, according to their records "crime doubled in the period 2005-2006". When I asked him to elaborate more, he did not respond further when he realised I had a website. So although my extrapolations on these graphs may seem scary... it is possible... that the reality is even more frightening!

[9 Graphs] How Nelson Mandela brought Crime & Murder to South Africa

These days, people are turning out in huge numbers to protest against crime. People have been begging for a return of the death penalty for years. The Government ignores them. One group of people sent 30,000 petitions directly to President Mbeki. (He says out of control crime "is just a perception"). More recently I heard of 80,000 people signing a petition, and one organisation promising to collect 1 million signatures to give to government. Crime is a huge issue in S.Africa and yet, NOBODY has dared to take numbers, such as I have here, and put them into graphs and studied them - because perhaps - that is the most shocking exercise of all!!

By the way, Nelson Mandela loved releasing criminals as does the current Government. One year, Nelson Mandela said he would "give the country a present" and the present was the release of 9,000 criminals. In recent years enormous numbers were released. In one series of releases they were talking of letting 63,000 criminals go. I posted that story on my website quite a long time ago, along with TvNews photos. Here is the link to the story:- Click here for the story of the release of 63,000 criminals.

I would like to co-operate with anyone who can source better and more accurate data. I have wondered if anyone in one of the larger security or insurance companies would be prepared to anonymously release some of their data. I would like to see statistics for the last 10 years because it is these years which are the most worrisome.

But when crime in S.Africa is looked at in a historical context, it brings home a completely different picture showing what this country was like and how things have changed in a way which I think few expected - most definitely not anyone outside this country.

Finally, if anyone wants to take some of these pages with statistics and wishes to expand/grow the spreadsheet with additional data and then send it to me - feel free to do so. Just drop a line on the "Contact us" page of my website.

I hope this spurs people on and helps them to see and understand the state of this country. Jan.

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